Momentum in Ukraine peace negotiations increased over the weekend, supporting President Donald Trump’s earlier claim that talks are in the “final stages.” However, forex markets remain cautious about interpreting this as a definitive geopolitical turning point.

Following Trump’s remarks after discussions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European leaders confirmed a coordinated effort to consolidate recent progress. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reported holding a one-hour call with Trump, Zelenskyy and several European leaders to discuss the negotiations. She described the discussions as constructive and noted “good progress.”

Von der Leyen emphasised that Europe is prepared to continue close collaboration with Ukraine and the US. She stressed any peace agreement must be backed by “ironclad” security guarantees from the outset—echoing Trump’s previous promise of a “strong” security arrangement.

In London, a Downing Street spokesperson confirmed that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also took part in the calls, with leaders praising progress made so far. This coordinated messaging suggests growing alignment among Western partners on process, even though key substantive issues remain unresolved.

Trump offered an upbeat but measured assessment. He said negotiations were “getting a lot closer” after a “terrific” meeting with Zelenskyy but acknowledged one or two “thorny issues” persist—especially territorial disputes. Trump added these could be resolved and suggested the talks’ outcome might clarify within “a few weeks,” reinforcing the urgency he flagged earlier.

Regarding security guarantees, Zelenskyy stated that US–Ukraine assurances were “100% agreed,” while Trump indicated they were about 95% settled. This slight difference highlights how close, yet incomplete, the negotiations remain. Trump also mentioned Russia’s planned involvement in Ukraine’s reconstruction and stated Washington would seek ways to overcome Russian President Vladimir Putin’s opposition to a ceasefire.

From a forex trader’s perspective, the overall mood is cautiously optimistic rather than confident about an immediate “peace dividend.” As noted previously, the euro could strengthen if lower energy costs and a reduced geopolitical risk premium begin to be priced in, while oil prices might stay under pressure. However, until concrete milestones—such as an official Trump-Putin meeting or a signed peace framework—materialise, investors are likely to view these updates as incremental steps rather than a fundamental shift.

Early EUR/USD trading shows little change from late Friday, hovering around 1.1765. It is important to note that market liquidity is currently light as many professional traders take summer breaks.

Oil futures will reopen at 1800 US Eastern time today, though similarly low participation levels can be expected.

Original Source: Eamonn Sheridan of investinglive.com