Venezuelan oil exports to China are set to decline sharply from February following a significant reduction in the number of tankers able to depart the country due to a U.S. blockade, according to traders and analysts cited by Reuters.
China, the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, has experienced a slowdown in shipments since December when then-U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a blockade on sanctioned vessels transporting Venezuelan oil. This move was part of a broader U.S. pressure campaign that included a military incursion and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Trump has since declared U.S. control over the founding OPEC member and encouraged American companies to invest in Venezuela’s energy sector.
Since the blockade’s inception, only three tankers carrying Venezuelan crude and fuel oil have made their way to Asia, with approximately 5 million barrels expected to arrive in China by late February. This volume equates to roughly 166,000 barrels per day, a steep decline from the average 642,000 barrels per day Venezuela exported to China in 2025. During that year, China accounted for about 75% of Venezuela’s oil exports, according to internal PDVSA documents.
The fall in shipments follows several U.S. seizures of vessels linked to Venezuela, which led many shipowners to abandon or reverse their voyages to avoid confiscation. Although around a dozen tankers attempted to depart covertly with transponders switched off in early January, most of these ships returned after Venezuela’s interim authorities secured a 50-million-barrel oil supply arrangement with Washington.
Despite the expected decline, Chinese refiners are not urgently seeking replacement barrels. Data from industry trackers Kpler and Vortexa indicate that 43 to 52 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are still en route to Asia. In November, China took a record 660,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, ensuring inventories remain well stocked.
Looking ahead, the greatest impact will likely be felt by China’s independent “teapot” refiners, which depend heavily on Venezuelan crude grades such as Merey. Traders suggest these refiners may pivot to alternatives like Canadian heavy crude in the second quarter as Venezuelan supplies are either redirected to the U.S. or constrained by enforcement risks.
Original Source: Eamonn Sheridan of investinglive.com
