By Published On: December 24, 20251.5 min read

Oil market participants appear to be winding down for the year, according to a telegram channel summarising recent expectations regarding inventory changes.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), which conducts a private survey of oil storage facilities and companies, forecasted the following weekly changes in crude and fuel inventories:
– Crude oil: decrease of 2.4 million barrels
– Distillates: increase of 0.4 million barrels
– Gasoline: increase of 1.1 million barrels

The official government inventory report, published by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), is due on Wednesday morning US time. Unlike the API report, which focuses primarily on total crude oil storage levels and their week-on-week changes, the EIA report offers a more comprehensive analysis. It includes data on refinery inputs and outputs, storage levels for different crude grades (light, medium, and heavy), and other key indicators of oil market conditions.

The EIA report is widely regarded as more accurate and thorough than the API’s private survey, as it relies on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies.

Meanwhile, oil prices have risen during the week. Prices found early support on Monday, driven by increased geopolitical risks that added a modest risk premium to crude markets. Over the weekend, the United States intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker, signalling Washington’s intent to more actively enforce sanctions. Although the immediate impact on global supply remains limited, this move heightened concerns about potential disruptions in that region.

Tensions in the Middle East also remain elevated, particularly the ongoing standoff between Israel and Iran. While no new escalations were reported, the continued uncertainty keeps traders cautious, especially given the strategic importance of Middle Eastern supply routes and infrastructure.

These geopolitical developments helped stabilise oil prices following recent declines, with markets gradually rebuilding their risk premium as the week has progressed.

Original Source: Eamonn Sheridan of investinglive.com

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