The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised upward its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, citing a stronger economic outlook and lower crude prices. The agency now expects demand to increase by approximately 930,000 barrels per day (bpd), up from an earlier estimate of 860,000 bpd. This adjustment follows demand growth of around 850,000 bpd in the previous year, reflecting improved macroeconomic conditions and price-related support for consumption. Despite this positive revision, the IEA warns that supply growth continues to outpace demand significantly. The agency has raised its forecast for supply growth to 2.5 million bpd, indicating that production [...]

Japan’s bond market is under significant pressure as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pledge to suspend the consumption tax on food clashes with rising government bond yields, raising doubts about the country’s fiscal discipline. Takaichi’s promise to halt the 8% food consumption tax for two years, a measure once seen as politically off-limits, has reignited investor concerns over Japan’s ability to manage the world’s largest public debt load. Notably, former prime minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s mentor, refrained from cutting this tax during his tenure and even went ahead with a tax hike in 2019 despite its unpopularity. The market reaction has [...]

Forex traders should take note of recent developments in the oil market, as these could influence currency movements, particularly for commodity-linked currencies. The American Petroleum Institute (API) released a private survey on oil inventories with the following expectations: crude oil stocks rising by 1.7 million barrels, distillates falling by 0.15 million barrels, and gasoline inventories increasing by 2.5 million barrels. This survey, conducted among oil storage facilities and companies, differs significantly from the official government data due Wednesday morning from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA report is generally regarded as more accurate and comprehensive. It draws on [...]

The latest update from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker shows an increase in the estimated annualised GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025, rising to 5.4 percent from 5.3 percent the previous week. However, this quarter remains difficult to assess accurately due to disruptions caused by the extended US government shutdown. This revised estimate incorporates recent data releases from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Notably, the forecasts for real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth have been adjusted upwards, from 3.1 percent to [...]

Fundamental Overview for Forex Traders US Dollar (USD) The US Dollar has weakened broadly during the first half of the week, largely driven by escalating tensions over Greenland linked to President Trump’s recent remarks. The prevailing theme behind the dollar’s decline is a renewed focus on de-dollarisation amid aggressive and unpredictable US policies. However, the recent pullback may also reflect positioning adjustments after a period of USD strength triggered by slightly hawkish market repricing. If tensions ease, expect a potential relief rally in the dollar, especially if upcoming economic data show improvements in the weeks and months ahead. Market participants [...]

Amid ongoing geopolitical risks and a negative risk sentiment, the Swiss franc is emerging as one of the strongest performers among the major currencies this week. This strength is supported not only by global uncertainty but also by difficulties facing both the US dollar and Japanese yen. The US dollar is experiencing outflows amid erratic administrative policies, while the yen is under pressure due to the Takaichi trade selloff. As a result, the Swiss franc stands out as the primary safe-haven currency within the major pairs, remaining true to its defensive nature amid the current risk-off environment. EUR/CHF opened the [...]

Negative inflation prints are possible this year, but a few months of negative inflation would not cause concern, according to the Swiss National Bank (SNB). At its most recent policy decision, the SNB kept all settings unchanged and offered a more optimistic outlook, partly due to lower US tariff rates. SNB members, including Chairman Thomas Schlegel, emphasised that the threshold for returning to negative interest rates remains very high. Schlegel acknowledged the possibility of negative inflation occurring this year but stressed that it would not be problematic. Last year, markets anticipated negative rates as inflation approached deflation, but the SNB’s [...]

After a volatile US session on Tuesday, markets across the Asia-Pacific region saw subdued and directionless trading, with few fresh catalysts to influence price movements. Regional equities opened lower in reaction to Wall Street’s sharp sell-off but stabilised as the day progressed. A key factor calming sentiment was a modest recovery in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). Earlier heavy selling had pushed long-end yields sharply higher, causing concern over potential spillovers into global rates markets. The partial rebound in JGB prices helped ease fears, supporting regional assets given Japan’s significant role in global capital flows and carry trade. Overall news flow [...]