The US dollar regained some ground over the past few days, but its momentum stalled as the odds of a December rate cut increased sharply following dovish comments from Federal Reserve’s Williams. Currently, the market assigns around a 70% probability to a rate cut in December. With limited economic data expected before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, trader attention will centre largely on upcoming US jobless claims and ADP employment reports. Weak data should continue to weigh on the greenback, while stronger-than-expected figures could offer short-term support.

On the Australian dollar front, recent economic data has been notably hawkish. Both inflation and employment reports surprised to the upside, positioning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) comfortably on the sidelines. Market expectations for a rate cut in 2026 have effectively vanished. Tomorrow’s Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release is unlikely to change the RBA’s stance, as the central bank has repeatedly emphasised that it focuses more on quarterly inflation data due to the volatility of monthly figures.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, AUD/USD briefly dipped below October lows on Friday but rebounded following Fed’s Williams endorsing a potential rate cut. Buyers are likely to continue stepping in around current levels, targeting a rally toward the 0.6520 resistance. Conversely, sellers will need to see a break below current support to increase bearish positions, eyeing a move down to the 0.6350 area.

4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a descending trendline that defines the current bearish momentum. Sellers may use this trendline as a level to add short positions, with risk managed above it, aiming for new lows. Buyers, meanwhile, will look for a break above the trendline to build bullish bets targeting the 0.6520 resistance.

1-Hour Chart
On the 1-hour chart, the market dynamics are less defined. Sellers will watch for price rejection near resistance levels, while buyers will seek a breakout to sustain upward momentum. Current red lines illustrate today’s average daily range.

Upcoming Economic Catalysts

Today’s data calendar includes US weekly ADP employment figures and the US Consumer Confidence report. The market will also receive data on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales for September. Tomorrow sees the release of the Australian monthly CPI and the latest US Jobless Claims. With US markets observing the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, the final part of the week is expected to be more rangebound.

Original Source: Giuseppe Dellamotta of investinglive.com